Imagine the long rains arrive two months late, your feed supplier raises prices because maize harvests failed, and then — just as you've adjusted — torrential rain floods your chicken house. That is what an El Niño cycle can look like on a real farm. With forecasts pointing to El Niño strengthening through late 2026 and into 2027, now is the time to prepare your flock, your feed supply, and your finances before the weather does the deciding for you.
El Niño is the single biggest driver of year-to-year climate variability in the world. In its warm phase, it shifts rainfall and temperature patterns across entire tropical regions, affecting crop production, water availability, and livestock health. For poultry farmers in Kenya and across East Africa, that can mean drought in some seasons and destructive flooding in others — sometimes in the same year.
The good news: farmers who plan ahead consistently lose less than those who react. Here's how to be one of them.
Understand What El Niño Actually Does to a Poultry Farm
Poultry are indirect victims of El Niño. Your birds don't care about ocean temperatures in the Pacific — but they care deeply about what those temperatures do to maize prices, water supply, and disease pressure.
The main risks fall into four buckets:
- Feed cost spikes. Drought or flooding damages maize and soybean harvests, and feed is already 60–70% of your production cost. Even a modest price increase can erase your profit margin on layers.
- Water scarcity. Birds drink roughly twice as much water as they eat by weight, and more in hot weather. A failed borehole or dry tap during a heatwave is an emergency within hours.
- Heat stress and disease. High temperatures suppress feed intake and egg production. Wet, flooded conditions increase the risk of coccidiosis, respiratory disease, and contaminated water.
- Infrastructure damage. Heavy rain can flood poultry houses, soak litter, and spoil stored feed.
Which of these threatens you most depends on your location. Are you in an area that historically dries out during El Niño, or one that floods? Check what happened in your area during past El Niño events — that history is your best planning tool.
Secure Your Feed Supply Early
Feed is where El Niño hits your pocket first, so this is where preparation pays the most.
Buy and store strategically. If you have storage space and cash flow, consider buying maize, soya, or finished feed before prices climb. But only do this if you can store it properly — feed ruined by mould is worse than no feed at all. Aflatoxin from poorly stored grain is toxic to birds and can pass into eggs.
If you buy in bulk:
- Use pallets or raised platforms so bags never touch the floor.
- Keep the store dry, ventilated, and rodent-proof.
- Follow first-in, first-out rotation.
- Inspect regularly for moisture, mould, and weevils.
Reformulate if needed. Work with a qualified animal nutritionist about alternative ingredients if maize becomes scarce. Sorghum, millet, cassava, and sunflower cake can partially substitute in some rations — but changes must be gradual and balanced, or production will drop.
Reduce waste. A surprising amount of feed is lost to spillage, rats, and overfilled troughs. Fill troughs only one-third full, repair leaking drinkers, and control rodents. Cutting waste by even 5% is like getting a discount on every bag.
Protect Your Water Supply
Water planning is where many farmers get caught off guard. Ask yourself honestly: if your usual water source failed for two weeks, what would you do?
Practical steps include:
- Harvest rainwater now. Gutters on your poultry house roof feeding into storage tanks can carry you through dry spells. Even a modest roof collects a surprising volume during a single storm.
- Store a reserve. Keep at least several days' worth of water in clean, covered tanks.
- Service your equipment. Check pumps, pipes, and drinkers before the season turns, not after.
- Plan for quality, not just quantity. Floodwater can contaminate wells. If your water source is at risk, have a treatment plan and consult your local veterinary or extension officer on safe options.
Climate-Proof Your Housing
Your poultry house needs to handle both extremes: heat and storms.
For heat: Ensure good ventilation, consider shade netting or roof insulation, and avoid overstocking — crowded birds generate dangerous amounts of heat. Planting trees around (not against) the house provides long-term cooling.
For rain and flooding: Repair roofs before the season, clear drainage channels around the house, and if your site is low-lying, consider raising the floor or relocating to higher ground. Wet litter is a breeding ground for coccidiosis and ammonia problems, so keep extra dry bedding material in stock.
For biosecurity: Extreme weather stresses birds, and stressed birds get sick. Keep vaccinations up to date, restrict visitor access, and isolate any sick birds quickly. During erratic weather, consult a veterinarian at the first sign of unusual mortality rather than waiting to see how things develop.
Diversify and Build Financial Resilience
Climate-smart farming isn't only about the birds — it's about the business.
- Stagger your production. Instead of one large batch, consider smaller, overlapping batches so a single disaster doesn't wipe out your entire income.
- Diversify income. Some farmers combine poultry with drought-tolerant crops or other enterprises. Research from farmer field schools in southern Malawi shows that farmers adopting integrated climate-smart practices cope better with climate shocks than those relying on a single activity.
- Keep an emergency fund. Even one month's operating costs in reserve can be the difference between surviving a feed price spike and selling off your flock at a loss.
- Explore insurance and support programmes. Agricultural insurance and government or NGO support schemes are expanding in the region. Ask your county agricultural office what's available — food security experts emphasize that early support before a disaster is far more effective than relief afterwards.
Make a Simple Written Plan This Week
Preparation fails when it stays in your head. Take one hour and write down:
- Your three biggest El Niño risks, specific to your farm.
- What you'll do about each one, and by when.
- Who you'll call — vet, feed supplier, extension officer — if things go wrong.
- How much cash or feed reserve you need, and how you'll build it.
Which risk would top your list — feed, water, or flooding? Answering that question honestly is the first real step.
The Bottom Line
El Niño 2026–27 will reward farmers who prepare and punish those who wait. You cannot control the weather, but you can control your feed storage, your water reserves, your housing, and your financial cushion. Start with the cheapest, highest-impact actions — fixing drainage, servicing water systems, tightening feed storage — and build from there.
If you found this useful, follow Poultry Market for more practical, season-ready poultry guidance. Have you started preparing your farm for the coming weather shifts? Share your experience or questions in the comments — your approach might be exactly what another farmer needs to hear. And if you know a farmer who hasn't thought about this yet, pass this article along to them.
References
- The Race to Protect Food Systems: Supporting Farmers Before El Niño – Food Tank
- El Niño 2026-2027: Business Preparedness in the Americas and the Caribbean | PreventionWeb
- Adoption and integration of climate smart and nutrition sensitive agriculture practices: evidence from farmer field school approaches in southern Malawi | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
